Moor Insights & Strategy Weekly Update Ending 1-06-2023

By Patrick Moorhead - January 10, 2023

We hope you are having a great start to the 2023 New Year!

Moor Insights & Strategy started our year off by attending CES 2023. Anshel, Bill, and I attended the event in Las Vegas, and we will be writing about our insights in the coming weeks. This week, Matt and I will be attending the Intel Sapphire Rapids Launch.

Over the last few weeks, our MI&S team published 35 deliverables:

6 Forbes insight columns
17 MI&S blogs
11 podcasts
1 research papers

The press quoted us with 16 citations. Journalists wanted to hear about CES, Google, Intel, Meta, NVIDIA, Synaptics, TikTok, and Ventana.

MIS Quick Insights:

A.I./Machine Learning (Paul Smith-Goodson)

At CES 2023, Lisa Su, AMD CEO, highlighted the new Instinct MI300 exascale APU that was announced last year.
The MI300 is the world’s first integrated data center CPU and GPU. It is designed for HPC and AI performance. The MI300 accelerators have a 3D chiplet design combining AMD CDNA 3 GPU architecture, 24 “Zen 4” CPU cores, and HBM memory chiplets. It has a total of more than 146 billion transistors. We expect it to be released in mid-2023.
This information came at the very end of Dr. Su's keynote address, so there was not a lot of detailed information. Performance information should be coming as the release date gets closer. It will also be interesting to see comparisons between the MI300 and NVIDIA's Hopper.

AR/VR (Anshel Sag)

Carrier/Wireless (Will Townsend)

Datacenter:

Storage- (Steve McDowell)
- 2022 did not end well for Micron. The glut of flash memory and memory, triggered by downturns in enterprise infrastructure and consumer spending, is hurting the company. Before Christmas, Micron announced third-quarter earnings that did not meet expectations, falling 47% year/year. Micron has announced cost-cutting efforts, including lowering production by approximately 40%, an executive pay freeze, and a 10% layoff. Let’s hope Micron and this entire sector have a better 2023.
- If Nutanix is in play, then its long-rumored suitor, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, has ruled itself out. According to CRN, HPE has publicly denied that the company is pursuing Nutanix. While HPE would be a natural steward of Nutanix’s technology (even if only as the control plane for HPE Greenlake), there’s still plenty of life left for Nutanix as a standalone player. Rumors persist about Nutanix, but at least one suitor has ruled itself out.
Networking- (Will Townsend)
- N/A
Server- (Matt Kimball)
- There is a lot of chatter around layoffs in the tech industry, as some of the giants have gone through headcount reductions recently. In addition, tech titan CEOs are talking about how the industry will go through a tough couple of years as recessions and a post-pandemic slowdown in spending will require a normalization. Here’s what I heard from my ex-IT colleagues. Regardless of economic conditions, mandates around digitalization and sustainability are still a top priority. Tech marketeers – do not lose focus on driving activities and messaging that demonstrates IT operations automation and cost efficiencies in 2023.
- 2023 is the year of the data-driven business. Again. I expect to see consumption-based computing (e.g., HPE GreenLake) deployments accelerate as enterprise IT organizations realize the time-to-value advantage such solutions bring. As companies face hiring freezes and spending caps enforced (see my previous point), these solutions become invaluable in delivering a real cloud operating model to enterprise IT.
- Intel’s Sapphire Rapids launches very soon! Will it demonstrate that Intel is responding forcefully to the competitive pressures brought about by AMD, Arm, and what we are seeing coming out of the RISC-V movement? I can’t say yet, but it will have coverage on Forbes – so be sure to check it out. Regardless, I believe 2023 will be an exciting year for silicon and the server CPU market.

FinTech (Melody Brue)

Fintech is going to go through some massive transformations in 2023. That's a benign statement that anyone could make about many industries this year, so I'll break it down into a few key things and keep this going over the following several newsletters, Forbes articles, and blogs (which will also be in our newsletter).
- Crypto: The crypto winter is not over. The contagion sparked by FTX's collapse continues to spread, with several digital asset firms declaring bankruptcy. As the industry is still sifting through the rubble and waiting to see which (and there will likely be) other crypto firms that fall, regulation and jurisdiction in the industry remain unclear. Add policy war to crypto winter, and things are messy. Crypto legislation will be difficult to pass, with Democrats and Republicans narrowly split in control of Congress. The SEC has yet to create any regulatory framework, yet wants punitive rights. 2023 is a critical year for the crypto industry.
- Blockchain: First, let us get this straight: Blockchain is not crypto. Blockchain will have its moment in the sun in 2023 in mainstream use cases like car titles (CHAMP Title is doing this now), B2B Payments (Paystand), tokenized securities (Securitize), loans & credit, and more.
- BNPL: Credit reporting will be the industry's most significant issue in 2023. This is for two main reasons: consumer protection - making sure that consumers are not over-extending themselves; and financial wellness - helping credit invisible, thin, or sub-prime consumers to build credit. BNPL was built to serve those customers, and the goal should be to help people beyond splitting their payments. The credit bureaus and BNPL companies have yet to figure out how to report these transactions in a way that gives credit where credit is due. Different trade lines and timelines of transactions, i.e., too many new lines of credit, can temporarily lower a credit score even if paid on time, while not reporting payments does not help to improve credit at all. Most BNPL companies only report delinquent payments, so consumers have no credit-building upside. The big four bureaus and the BNPL players are discussing this, and I am hopeful that a consumer-friendly solution will arise this year.

IIoT and IoT (Bill Curtis)

Personal Computing/ Collaboration (Anshel Sag)

Quantum Computing (Paul Smith-Goodson)

For people looking to become more informed about quantum computing and how it works, you might check out IBM's new free video series, "Understanding Quantum Information and Computation." It consists of video lessons and textbook content explaining quantum computing.
- According to IBM, it is a work in progress. In the near term, it plans to release lessons monthly until the first unit of the series (on the basics of quantum information) is complete. Subsequent units will cover topics including quantum algorithms and techniques to mitigate noise in quantum computers. The first installment was released in December.
- This training starts at the right place and progresses into the key areas of quantum understanding. It offers a lot of value for a free series.
- A program overview is here
A recently released paper by Chinese researchers claims that a 372-qubit quantum computer could break RSA (600 decimals) using Schnorr's factoring algorithm (not Shor's). The algorithm was originally designed for classical computers, but the researchers adapted it as a quantum QAOA algorithm. The researchers claim the theory was tested on a 15-digit using 10 qubits. A preprint is available here.

Retail Tech (Melody Brue)

At CES in Las Vegas, The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) released findings predicting that United States technology retail revenues would drop to $485 billion in 2023, a decrease of $12 billion from 2022 and $27 billion from the peak of $512 billion in 2021. Despite this dip, CTA noted that the forecast is still higher than the $435 billion of 2019 and projected that the sectors of “consumer services” -- automotive, gaming, audio, apps, and health and fitness technologies would experience a rise in consumer spending. The organization attributed the projected overall revenue fall to inflation and a “looming recession” while citing the pandemic and stay-at-home orders as drivers of consumer demand for connectivity and technology. With a decrease in dollars spent at retail, retailers are increasingly challenged to attract and retain customers throughout their journey - from search to omnichannel experience, e-commerce experience and speed, payment and checkout options, and more. It is a challenging time for retailers. While brands strategize for success in the new year, relying on technology may be more important than ever to stay agile and deliver a customized personal experience for consumers. A good customer experience and understanding your consumer should always be the top priority for retailers.
Consumers are not all there yet with retail technologies available to them. Technology can significantly improve the shopping experience and, in turn, the performance of retail and e-commerce brands. After one year of tracking consumer behaviors regarding various retail technologies, Morning Consult found there has been no noticeable change in the number of U.S. consumers who have tried or are interested in trying technologies such as augmented reality, in-home product visualization, fit measurement tools, or online inventory estimates. This disparity between those who have tried retail tech and those who are interested is not a positive sign for retailers, considering the amount of money they have spent and the publicity they have given to launching these technologies. For instance, AR product visualization is available to many and advertised to make online purchases simpler and more convenient; yet there is a 20-point gap between those who have tried it and those that are interested in it. 47% of the general population report going online to check in-store inventory, suggesting that inventory estimator tools offer the most promise. The time and ecological advantages of saving a trip by using these tools are evident. Compared to other technologies, these tools are much easier to access and use without downloading a new app or placing trust in unfamiliar tools.

Security (Will Townsend)

Space (Paul Smith-Goodson)

Podcasts:

The G2 on 5G by Moor Insights & Strategy, with Anshel Sag and Will Townsend

DataCentric Podcast by Moor Insights & Strategy, with Matt Kimball and Steve McDowell

The Six-Five Podcast by Moor Insights & Strategy and Futurum Research, with Patrick Moorhead and Daniel Newman

Moor Insights & Strategy Podcast

Press Citations:

CES / Newson6 https://www.newson6.com/story/63b5a1584f9ea607daee5100/tech-innovators-preparing-for-consumer-electronics-show (Anshel Sag)
CES / Straightarrownews https://straightarrownews.com/cc/ces-looks-to-return-to-full-strength-after-covid-19-pandemic/ (Anshel Sag)
CES / News9 https://www.news9.com/story/63b5a1584f9ea607daee5100/tech-innovators-preparing-for-consumer-electronics-show (Anshel Sag)
Google / CNET https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/what-google-needs-to-do-for-android-to-overcome-apple-and-iphone-in-2023/ (Anshel Sag)
Intel / NetworkWorld https://www.networkworld.com/article/3684112/intel-splits-gpu-group-into-two-separate-units.html (Anshel Sag)
Meta / TheWashingtonPost https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/12/16/meta-ftc-trial-within-acqusition/ (Anshel Sag)
NVIDIA / NetworkWorld https://www.networkworld.com/article/3684174/nvidia-still-crushing-the-data-center-market.html (Anshel Sag)
NVIDIA, AI / TechTarget https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/news/252528879/Nvidia-adds-generative-AI-suite-to-Omniverse-platform
Synaptics / Marketscreener https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SYNAPTICS-INCORPORATED-11023/news/Synaptics-Enables-Lenovo-ThinkBook-Wireless-Dock-For-Seamless-Cable-Free-Dual-4K-Display-Connectivi-42667448/
Synaptics https://www.tipranks.com/news/press-releases/synaptics-enables-lenovo-thinkbook-wireless-dock-for-seamless-cable-free-dual-4k-display-connectivity(Anshel Sag)
Technology / MartechSeries https://martechseries.com/mts-insights/staff-writers/biggest-tech-acquisitions-and-funding-highlights-from-2022/ (Steve McDowell)
TikTok / BusinessInsiders https://www.businessinsider.com/us-tiktok-ban-why-do-they-want-to-ban-2022-12
TikTok / Yahoo https://autos.yahoo.com/tiktoks-future-uncertain-could-avoid-132624956.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACpLE-imGaEjl443_JIOh0xkB2hLRH4Y8qgRM8OSB2hHfOFejltPIIVh-eYt9mBAP5oS4St7TSzbPJ2DLY_Bp3nYEcyzHBO2hA8O_MaAlizKEsoq8dFWMsrBHcDdfwMRA6n4OFapddGf7tYcvCJsf6YHD3rnCafMSoJ1lIYnrIKa
TikTok / CanadaToday https://canadatoday.news/ca/without-radical-changes-tiktok-could-disappear-in-the-us-207087/
Ventana / Simmtester https://www.simmtester.com/News/IndustryArticle/24787
Ventana / EEtindia https://www.eetindia.co.in/ventana-unveils-risc-v-cpu-compute-chiplet-for-data-center/

Company:

New Gear or Software We are Using and Testing that is Public Knowledge

AMD Radeon RX 7900 XTX
Sony A7RV Camera

Events MI&S Plans on Attending In-Person or Virtually (New)

January
- CES 2023, Las Vegas, January 2-7 (Anshel Sag, Patrick Moorhead)
- Intel Sapphire Rapids launch, Jan 10 (Matt Kimball, Patrick Moorhead digitally)
- NRF, NYC, Jan 16-17 (Melody Brue)
- Qubits, Jan 17-19 (Paul Smith-Goodson)
- Event, San Francisco, Jan 31- Feb 1 (Patrick Moorhead)
February
- Event, San Franciso, January 31-Feb 1 (Patrick Moorhead)
- Seattle advisory, February 2-3 (Patrick Moorhead)
- Cisco Live – Amsterdam, February 6-8 (Will Townsend)
- Net Events Debate Moderator – Digital Transformation and the challenges of CIOs and CISOs, San Jose, Feb 15-16 (Matt Kimball)
- Mobile World Congress – Barcelona, February 27 – March 2 (Will Townsend)
March
- Mobile World Congress, March 1 (Patrick Moorhead)
- APS Quantum, Las Vegas, March 5-10 (Paul Smith-Goodson)
- Connected America – Dallas, March 28-29 (Will Townsend)

The Team

Analysts, Analysts In-Residence, Contributors

Patrick Moorhead, Founder, CEO, Chief Analyst; Broad technology coverage plus deep insights into Cloud & SaaS, Personal Computing, Semiconductors, & Automotive
Bill Curtis, Analyst In-Residence, IIoT, and Deep IoT Technology
Matt Kimball, Principal Analyst, Datacenter Servers, CI, and HCI
Melody Brue, Principal Analyst, Financial Tech
Steve McDowell, Principal Analyst, Datacenter Storage, and Storage Technologies
Anshel Sag, Principal Analyst; VR, PC Gaming, Mobile Platforms
Paul Smith-Goodson, Principal Analyst; Machine Learning, A.I. and Quantum Computing
Will Townsend, Principal Analyst; Security, Carrier Services, Networking
Chris Wilder, Contributor, Security
Jacob Freyman, Junior Analyst

Operations

Dan Pickens, Business Director
Paula Moorhead, Marketing Director, Website and Social Media
Zane Pickett, Office Manager, AP, AR, travel, writer
Lee LeClercq Williams, Business Associate
Nigel Church, Business Associate, Writer, Editor

Patrick Moorhead

+ posts

Patrick founded the firm based on his real-world world technology experiences with the understanding of what he wasn’t getting from analysts and consultants. Ten years later, Patrick is ranked #1 among technology industry analysts in terms of “power” (ARInsights) in “press citations” (Apollo Research). Moorhead is a contributor at Forbes and frequently appears on CNBC. He is a broad-based analyst covering a wide variety of topics including the cloud, enterprise SaaS, collaboration, client computing, and semiconductors. He has 30 years of experience including 15 years of executive experience at high tech companies (NCR, AT&T, Compaq, now HP, and AMD) leading strategy, product management, product marketing, and corporate marketing, including three industry board appointments.