Moor Insights & Strategy Two-Week Update ending January 14, 2022

I hope you all are having a great start to the new year.

This week, I will be attending Zoom’s “Work Transformational Summit. Next week, Paul and I will be attending a Quantum Computing Briefing in California. Yes, a real live meeting!   

A few of us are still planning on attending MWC. Please let us know if we can help support your activities with sponsored videos under both the Moor Insights & Strategy or Six Five brands. We’d love to know if you’re still going!

Over the last two weeks, our MI&S team published 33 deliverables: 

The press quoted us with 19 citations. Journalists wanted to hear about Amazon, Apple, Aptiv, Automobile,CES, Semiconductors, Cloud, Discover, Google, Intel, NVIDIA, OnePlus, Oracle, Samsung, Sony, andTheranos. 

Quick Insights:

A.I./Machine Learning (Paul Smith-Goodson)

  • Several years ago, about 1 in 5 of my trips through a McDonalds’ drive-thru resulted in the order being at least one short of something. It is better now, but AI will make it near perfect. Several fast-food places, including McDonald’s, are testing Presto’s AI to take drive-through orders. In a pilot program, an AI voice assistant took orders correctly almost 100% of the time. Labor shortages and Covid will make the technology even more attractive.
    • Presto will eventually have competition. Vistry, a startup and member of the NVIDIA Inception startup accelerator program is also building an AI-enabled automated order-taking solution. It uses NLP for menu understanding and speech and recommendation systems. Vistry believes it will provide faster and personalized accurate order-taking.
    • Vistry uses NVIDIA Riva building speech AI applications. It includes natural language understanding and speech recognition, and synthesis capabilities. It also uses computer vision technology optimized with the NVIDIA Metropolis application framework.
  • Noteworthy.AI is using edge computing to examine utility poles rapidly. Using truck-mounted cameras, it is possible to examine every pole the truck passes, determine its location and how its equipped, and analyze its condition. There are 185 million utility poles in the US, and millions are spent on tracking transformers, fuses, and other equipment and the status of vegetation and weeds around the pole. Manually, workers can only examine a small number of a company’s pole inventory in a month, but AI can do it much faster. The system uses two cameras on a truck and a small unit in the cab that processes images and AI on an NVIDIA Jetson NX. The system uses seven AI models. This can be applied to many pole-related applications. Perhaps eventually, similar systems across the country can help reduce energy costs.

AR/VR (Anshel Sag)

  • Qualcomm and Microsoft have partnered to build custom Snapdragon chips for Microsoft’s upcoming unannounced lightweight AR glasses, both for consumer and enterprise applications. Additionally, this new partnership will bring Snapdragon Spaces and Microsoft Mesh together into a single solution that I believe will benefit the industry.
  • Mojovision raised $45 billion to bring its AR contact lenses to new markets, including athletics applications like cycling, running, and golfing, among other sports.
  • Panasonic’s subsidiary Shiftall announced a new pair of ultra-light VR goggles that have a 5.2K resolution and weigh a fraction of what other VR headsets weigh today.
  • Rec Room raised $145 million at $3.5 billion, further validating its social VR strategy and likely giving it some more runway as the battle for the Metaverse heats up.
  • Snap has been battling the USPTO for 5 years to be able to get access to the Spectacles Trademark that it wants exclusivity to, and the Trademark Office does not want to grant it

Carrier/Wireless (Will Townsend)

  • Dish Wireless is behind in its 5G deployment and is at risk of a $2B fine by the FCC if it does not meet a 20% coverage goal by summer. From my perspective, Open RAN could be the thorn in its plans given integration complexities as witnessed by Rakuten Mobile in Japan. 

Datacenter: 

  • Storage- (Steve McDowell) 
    • CES isn’t usually where you go to find the future of storage, but Intel and Samsung demonstrated just how fast storage is about to become. The two companies brought Intel’s upcoming client processor, PCIe gen 5, with a PCIe 5 SSD from Samsung. The demo showed the SSD delivering nearly 14GB/second of throughput, nearly double that of PCIe gen 4. This will be the speed of media in storage arrays in 2023 and something you’ll see in mainstream computers much earlier. 
    • High-performance data requires a high-performance file system. This is most impactful in AI and machine learning applications, where keeping GPUs from stalling out while waiting for data is paramount. Weka has found great success playing in this space, which many of the biggest names in tech have noticed. Weka’s latest funding round brought in $73M from investors, including Hitachi Ventures, HPE, NVIDIA, Micron, Cisco, and a handful of more traditional financial players. Keep watching Weka.   
    • Micron introduces new dense low-power small form-factor QLC flash memory targeted at laptops and other mobile devices. The new Micron 2400 SSD series delivers up to 2TB in the “gumstick” format. The new devices are the first introduction of 176-layer QLC NAND in an SSD. The new NAND enables 24% lower read latency than traditional 96-layer QLC. Micron has also cut the power consumer in half, specifically to meet Intel’s Project Athena requirements to deliver 9+ hours of battery life on laptops. 
    • Samsung offered positive earnings guidance, saying that its top-line will be up 23.5% while profits rise a whopping 52.5%. Interestingly to storage watchers is that Samsung says that the impetus for the surprise increase is strong demand for DRAM and NAND flash for servers. This is a nice early signal showing a healthy data center segment for the quarter just ended.
  • Networking- (Will Townsend) 
    • Zayo Group announced its acquisition of QOS Networks this week. Zayo is a fiber-based communications solution provider, and the purchase should add needed SD-WAN services depth to its portfolio. SD-WAN is a crowded market, but software-defined networking capabilities to Zayo’s strength in edge managed services could result in an end-to-end enterprise offering.    
  • Server- (Matt Kimball) 
    • Three predictions for 2022
      • 2022 is the year of consumption. IT-as-a-Service adoption will accelerate as IT organizations are more pressed than ever to complete the digitalization journey. Further, IT organizations will be looking to deploy entire solution stacks through GreenLake, APEX, TruScale, and other consumption-based offerings.  
      • Because of the above, the measurements of performance and value will change in the market. SPEC, TPC, and other server benchmarking tools will carry less influence, replaced by optimized workload offerings.  
      • Arm-based servers will find a home in the enterprise datacenter through the likes of Oracle’s dedicated region offering and AWS Outpost.  
    • Three questions for 2022
      • How will the AMD-Intel battle for the hearts and minds of datacenter operators shape up in 2022? Does AMD continue to accelerate its momentum (and share)? 
      • Has the success of AWS Graviton inspired other cloud providers and hyperscalers to bring chip development in-house? More on this in a bit 
      • How does the Dell divesture in VMware impact both companies? Does Dell rekindle its once successful relationship with Nutanix? 
    • Azure is making moves. Mike Filippo (of M1 fame) has moved to MSFT. So, perhaps one of my questions has already been answered.   

FinTech (Melody Brue)

  • N/A

IIoT and IoT (Bill Curtis)

  • Many companies announced Thread products, all with plans for Matter support in 2022.
    • Amazon – Announced frustration-free setup for Thread devices, including those from eWeLink, Ledvance, Sengled, TP-Link, Tuya, and Lifx. Silicon support for Matter and frustration-free setup is in the works from SiLabs, Espressif, Beken, Realtek, Nordic, and TI.
    • Samsung SmartThings – HomeHub with Matter support.
    • LG – Announced intent to support Matter in appliances.
    • GE Lighting – Announced Matter support for Cync product line.
    • Comcast – xFi advanced gateway WiFi router supports Matter and Zigbee. But not Thread? This is very odd.
    • Belkin – Wemo is all-in on Thread and Matter with new smart plugs, smart light switches, smart dimmers, and other products.
    • Eve Systems – Thread and HomeKit enabled security cameras and window shades. Full product line support in 2022.
    • Arlo – Announced support for Matter and joined the working group.
    • Nanoleaf innovative lighting products are the first Thread border routers capable of working with Apple HomeKit.
    • Sengled – Thread-enabled light bulbs later this year.
    • Aqara – announced door, window, and motion sensors with Thread and HomeKit support.
  • Last January, I was one of the first analysts to predict that Matter and Thread would win the IoT connectivity wars in 2022. I’m sticking with my prediction. We’ll see dozens (maybe hundreds) of new products in 2022 and thousands in 2023. This trend makes consumer IoT much more investable. 
  • In support of the Matter-Thread stampede, NXP announced a tri-radio chip with WiFi, Thread (802.15.4), and Bluetooth. The IW612 is ideal for Thread border routers because all three radios are needed. NXP has solved the coexistence problem (all three radios use the same 2.4GHz frequency band). The software stack is easy for developers to use because it does not require complicated timing or coexistence logic. This part has been sampling for months, so it’s sure to find its way into many products in 2022.
  • Johnson Controls acquired edge-native AE leader FogHorn. The acquisition makes sense because practical large-scale building automation requires autonomous intelligence, and edge AI is FogHorn’s specialty. But FogHorn also sold products to many other vertical industries, not just smart buildings. We’ll be watching to see how much FogHorn’s focus narrows under the new owner. Or, maybe Johnson’s focus expands. We’ll see. • The embedded device connectivity wars that started 20 years ago are now pretty much over. Matter and Thread have won, as evidenced by CES2022 product announcements from some of the largest consumer electronics companies, including Amazon, Apple, and Google. A gold rush to build interoperable connected devices starts now, and hundreds of products should be in the market by this time next year. It’s now time for consumer IoT businesses of all sizes to stake claims. • At CES, Amazon announced Sidewalk Bridge Pro, a Sidewalk access point designed to work outside and connect hundreds of devices “over 5 miles away.” Sidewalk introduced two years ago, is a public network overlay that transparently hosts a long-range, low-power LoRa network from newer Echo and Ring devices. The odds are good that there’s already one in your home. Enabled on each device by default, the Sidewalk signal extends a mile or more outdoors, so it only takes a few homes to cover an entire neighborhood. Although Sidewalk uses each host’s home Internet service for backhaul, LoRa bandwidth is so small that there’s no impact on the host’s Internet performance. Amazon fumbled the rollout of this service, so there’s quite a bit of negative press out there. I recommend taking a closer look. Sidewalk benefits outweigh the risk, and Bridge Pro is a game-changer for industrial and rural settings.

Personal Computing/ Collaboration (Anshel Sag) 

  • CES 2022 had a surprisingly high number of smartphone announcements, with all of them being 5G phones, including the Samsung Galaxy S21 FE, AT&T $199 mmWave 5G phone, OnePlus 10, and the TCL 30 series.
  • Samsung and Qualcomm managed to hit yet another 5G performance milestone, this time reaching a peak of 8.08 Gbps using Samsung Networks equipment and a Qualcomm Snapdragon X65 modem in a lab, combining 800 MHz of mmWave spectrum with 100 MHz of mid-band spectrum.
  • In the run-up to the launch of Verizon and AT&T’s 5G mid-band networks, which got delayed yet again until January 19, many 5G conspiracy theorists started to spread a new round of conspiracies that include vaccinated people’s heads exploding from the 5G network being turned on
  • Sony’s announcement of PSVR 2 at CES 2022 surprised everyone as nobody was expecting it at CES. They announced that it would have 4K resolution and have eye-tracking, which may be its most impressive feature once you realize that it means enabling foveated rendering, which brings a whole host of benefits to image quality and performance.

Quantum Computing (Paul Smith-Goodson)

  • A very interesting and useful report for marketing and sales of quantum systems and services by Zapata Computing reveals enterprise quantum computing attitudes, challenges, and adoption facts. Zapata commissioned a survey of 300 leaders at large global enterprises (CIOs, CTOs, and other VP-level and above executives) to get “real” on what is happening today and what is likely to happen in the near future. “The First Annual Report on Enterprise Quantum Computing Adoption”.
  • Going into 2022, I want to highlight the importance of 3 factors mentioned in my earlier Forbes article about the announcement of IBM’s Eagle processor. These are IBM initiatives, but in reality, they apply to all of quantum computing and all technologies. IBM is now benchmarking its systems by three key measurements: scale of qubits, quality as measured by quantum volume, and speed as measured by IBM’s new metric: circuit layer operations/second. Of course, qubit fidelity is inherently measured by all three measurements. 
  • Everyone knows that we will never build million qubit fault-tolerant quantum machines without full error correction. I was curious about the volume of error correction research being done over the past three years, so I checked the Arxiv for 2018-2021 research on quantum error correction. Here are the results: 2018 1220 results, 2019 1430 results, 2020 1730 results, and 2021 2680 results. Definitely increasing research in the subject. I’m still looking for significant movement this year.  

Security (Will Townsend)

  • As 5G and private networking gains momentum in robotic process automation (RPA), there will likely be target cybersecurity attacks. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) – a division of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, issued a recent brief with warnings for the sector. Key recommendations include retraining of RPA operators on processes and implementing new controls. From my perspective, this is no different than IoT sensors and devices that create a more porous attack surface for networks.        

Space (Paul Smith-Goodson)

  • N/A

Columns Published (Forbes, eWEEK, UPLOAD VR, and others)        

  1. Surface Duo 2 Review: Huge Improvements To A Groundbreaking Design, by Patrick Moorhead
  2. Surface Pro 8 Review: Microsoft Shows How Windows 11 Is Also A Tablet OS, by Patrick Moorhead
  3. AMD, Intel, And NVIDIA, Announce New CPU, GPU And Automotive Processors At CES 2022, by Patrick Moorhead
  4. Qualcomm Made Its Case About Dominating Premium Android Phones In 2022 At Its Recent Snapdragon Summit, by Patrick Moorhead
  5. Nutanix Rajiv Ramaswami On His First Year As CEO, by Patrick Moorhead
  6. Synaptics’ Potential On Full Display At CES 2022, by Patrick Moorhead
  7. No, The 16-Inch MacBook Pro M1 Max Does Not Win In Every Notebook Content Creation Scenario, by Patrick Moorhead
  8. Cisco Illuminates 2021’s ‘Purpose Work’ With Annual Societal Impact Report, by Patrick Moorhead
  9. Top Notebook Trends And Products From HP, Lenovo, And Dell At CES 2022, by Patrick Moorhead
  10. Plus Keeps On Trucking With IVECO Autonomous Pilot Partnership, by Patrick Moorhead
  11. GM Will Be First To Market With Qualcomm’s ‘5nm’ Ride Platform, by Patrick Moorhead
  12. Qualcomm Introduces New Snapdragon Ride Vision System And New Partnerships At CES 2022, by Patrick Moorhead
  13. Energy-As-A-Service – Unlocking Energy Savings Through Digitalization, by Patrick Moorhead
  14. CES 2022: Matter And Thread Win The IoT Connectivity Wars, by Bill Curtis
  15. Analyst Picks: Best Laptops Of 2021, by Anshel Sag

Blogs Published (MI&S)                                                              

  1. As Meta’s Datacenter’s Needs Change, The Company Will Diversify Its Approach To Silicon, by Patrick Moorhead
  2. A Virtual Stroll Through Zoom’s Hybrid Workplace Vision, by Patrick Moorhead
  3. An American Optimist: Why Our Country Needs More Tech Entrepreneurs Like Joe Lonsdale, by Patrick Moorhead
  4. Analyst Picks: Best Laptops Of 2021, by Anshel Sag
  5. Pure Storage Elevates FlashArray To Storage’s Top Tier, by Steve McDowell
  6. The $10 Billion James Web Space Telescope Is Our New Time Machine, by Paul Smith-Goodson
  7. MediaTek’s Flagship Dimensity 9000 SoC Isn’t The Company’s Only Interesting New Chip, by Anshel Sag
  8. My Industry Analyst Takeaway From AWS Re:Invent – AWS Is More Than A Cloud, by Matt Kimball

Research Paper(s):

Podcasts:

The G2 on 5G by Moor Insights & Strategy, with Anshel Sag and Will Townsend

  • The G2 on 5G Podcast – Episode 81 – January 14, 2022
    • Cradlepoint reaches one million routers deployed at Verizon’s edge – what does it mean for 5G service delivery?
    • 5G Advanced is coming soon with 3GPP Release 18 and beyond
    • Do T-Mobile and Verizon’s 5G FWA deployments threaten an already hammered cable industry?  
    • Signals Research Group Tests T-Mobile’s 2.5 GHz TDD + 600 MHz FDD CA
    • Rakuten Japan losses continue to mount – is there light at the end of their 5G tunnel?
    • FAA has a list of 50 airports that will require buffer zones for C-BAND and has been issuing NOTAMs to pilots warning them about C-BAND while also not having a complete understanding of how many aircraft are affected.
  • The G2 on 5G Podcast – Episode 80 – January 7, 2022

DataCentric Podcast by Moor Insights & Strategywith Matt Kimball and Steve McDowell

  • N/A

The Six-Five Podcast by Moor Insights & Strategy and Futurum Research, with Patrick Moorhead and Daniel Newman

Moor Insights & Strategy Podcast

Press Citations: 

  1. Amazon, Chips / Thenewstack.io https://thenewstack.io/aws-pushes-forward-its-custom-chip-efforts-with-graviton3/
  2. Apple /CNET  https://www.cnet.com/tech/smart-glasses-are-getting-ready-for-an-ipad-moment-in-2022/
  3. Apple / Cengsnews https://www.cengnews.com/tech/in-2022-smart-glasses-will-be-ready-for-the-ipad-179529.html
  4. Aptiv, Windriver / FierceTelecom https://www.fiercetelecom.com/cloud/aptiv-scoops-wind-river-43b (Will Townsend)
  5. Automotive / Autocar.uk  https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-tech%2C-development-and-manufacturing/stock-take-tech-revealed-ces-2022-bmw-sony-and
  6. CES / CNET https://www.cnet.com/tech/ces-needs-to-be-in-person-as-soon-as-its-safe/
  7. CES / https://www.cnet.com/tech/ces-needs-to-be-in-person-as-soon-as-its-safe/
  8. Chips / MSN.com https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/wellness/pcs-and-gaming-consoles-saw-biggest-boom-in-a-decade-in-2021-says-patrick-moorhead/vp-AASjO5a
  9. Chips / CNBC https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/pcs-and-gaming-consoles-saw-biggest-boom-in-a-decade-in-2021-says-patrick-moorhead/vi-AASjO5a
  10.  Cloud / SiliconAngle https://siliconangle.com/2022/01/14/watch-live-companies-shed-new-light-latest-cloud-native-trends-aws-startup-showcase-jan-26-awsshowcases2e1/ (Steve McDowell)
  11. Discover, DHL / https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-my/business/productivity/5g-and-logistics (Will Townsend)
  12. Google / Androidcentral https://www.androidcentral.com/google-android-13-analysts (Anshel Sag)
  13. Intel / Channelfutures https://www.channelfutures.com/people-on-the-move/intel-client-computing-group-leader-leaving-after-30-years-replacement-named
  14. NVIDIA / Fierceelectronics https://www.fierceelectronics.com/electronics/nvidia-bullish-avs-after-car-industrys-disastrous-21
  15. OnePlus / Phonearena https://www.phonearena.com/news/oneplus-10-pro-release-strategy_id137692 (Anshel Sag)
  16. Samsung / Androidcentral https://www.androidcentral.com/samsung-foldables-sales-record-record-conversions  (Anshel Sag)
  17. Sony / Androidcentral https://www.androidcentral.com/sonys-psvr-2-strategy-puts-it-odds-apple-and-meta-and-thats-good-thing (Anshel Sag)
  18. Theranos / Bolnews https://www.bolnews.com/latest/2022/01/theranos-verdict-sends-a-chill-through-startups-analysts/
  19. Theranos / Techxplore https://techxplore.com/news/2022-01-theranos-verdict-chill-startups-analysts.html

Company:

New Gear or Software We are Using and Testing that is Public Knowledge 

  • AMD RX 6600XT
  • Apple iPhone 13 mini, MacBook Pro 14”, MacBook Pro 16”
  • Dell UltraSharp Webcam 4K, XPS 17
  • Halo 20th Anniversary Xbox Controller
  • HP Reverb G2 Omnicept
  • Intel Alder Lake desktop
  • Microsoft Surface Duo 2, Surface Laptop Studio
  • Samsung Galaxy buds 2, Galaxy Watch 4, Galaxy Z Fold3 5G, and the Galaxy Z Flip3 5G, Galaxy Watch4 Classic 46mm
  • TCL 20 Pro 5G
  • Xilinx Kria KV260 Vision AI Kit

Events MI&S Plans on Attending In-Person or Virtually (New) 

  • January
    • Quantum Computing Briefing, California, January 31–February 1 (Paul Smith-Goodson, Patrick Moorhead)
  • February
    • Mobile World Congress Barcelona, February 28 – March 3 (Will Townsend, Patrick Moorhead)
    • World Ag Expo, Feb 8-10, Tulare, CA (Steve McDowell)
    • Intel Investor Day, virtual, Feb 17 (Patrick Moorhead)
    • Zoholics, virtual, Feb 22 (Patrick Moorhead)
    • Oracle Database Analyst Summit, virtual, Feb 23 (Patrick Moorhead)
  • March
    • SxSW, Austin, March 11-13 (Patrick Moorhead
    • NVIDIA GTC, San Jose, March 21-24 (Steve McDowell, Patrick Moorhead-virtual)
    • Aruba Atmosphere, March 27 (Will Townsend)
    • Data Center World, Austin, March 28-31 (Steve McDowell)
    • Dell Tech World, Las Vegas, May 2-5 (Steve McDowell, Patrick Moorhead)
  • April
    • Zoho Day ‘22, Austin, April 25-27 (Patrick Moorhead)
  • May
    • IBM Think, May 9-13 (Steve McDowell, Patrick Moorhead)
    • Intel Vision, May 10-11 (Steve McDowell)
    • Computex, May 24-27, (Patrick Moorhead –tentative)
  • June
    • Six Five Summit 2022, Virtual, June 7-9 (Patrick Moorhead)
    • Cisco Live, June 13-16 (Patrick Moorhead)
    • HPE Discover, June 28-30, Las Vegas (Steve McDowell)
  • July
  • August
    • Flash Memory Summit, Aug 2-4, Santa Clara (Steve McDowell)
  • September
    • SNIA Storage Developer Conference, San Jose, Sept 28-29 (Steve McDowell)

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The Team 

Analysts, Analysts In-Residence, Contributors

  1. Patrick Moorhead, Founder, CEO, Chief Analyst; Broad technology coverage plus deep insights into Cloud & SaaS, Personal Computing, Semiconductors, Automotive 
  2. Bill Curtis, Analyst In-Residence, IIoT, and Deep IoT Technology 
  3. Matt Kimball, Principal Analyst, Datacenter Servers, CI, and HCI 
  4. Melody Brue, Principal Analyst, Financial Tech
  5. Steve McDowell, Principal Analyst, Datacenter Storage, and Storage Technologies 
  6. Anshel Sag, Principal Analyst; V.R., P.C. Gaming, Mobile Platforms 
  7. Paul Smith-Goodson, Principal Analyst; Machine Learning, A.I. and Quantum Computing 
  8. Will Townsend, Principal Analyst; Security, Carrier Services, Networking 
  9. Chris Wilder, Contributor, Security 

Operations 

  1. Dan Pickens, Business Director 
  2. Paula Moorhead, Marketing Director, Website, and Social Media 
  3. Walker Pickens, Media Relations, and Writer 
  4. Zane Pickett, Office Manager, AP., AR, travel, writer 
  5. Lee LeClercq Williams, Business Associate 
  6. Jacob Freyman, Writer, and Researcher